- Indian property bubble
The origins of Indian Property Market Bubble can be traced to the
interest ratereductions made by the NDA coalition government in the years following 2001. Home Loan Rates fell to a (then) historical lows of 7.5% in early 2004. This prepared the basis for the massive increase in real estate property prices across India. Low interest rates triggered huge interest in individuals to borrow to own their own homes and this triggered an increase in demand for real estate across India.
The Indian Property Market has been growing fast since March 2005, when the current UPA government decided to open
FDIin Real Estate. The market has been growing at a dizzying rate of 100%+,.Fact|date=November 2007
Real estate in Indian metropolises such as
Mumbai, Delhiand Chennaihas sky rocketed to levels comparable with international cities like London.
One remarkable point is the real-estate boom in Chennai and its suburbs, leading to high prices in decent housing and then finally prices dropped. For example, an apartment of 1500
square footin a Chennaisuburb will cost around USD200,000, whereas in Europe similar size costs about USD 450,000. In a class A suburb of New York you can buy a large house for around same amount (450K). Per capita ratio is around 50:1 ($50,000 to $1100); this suggests the presence of a bubble.
However, speculations aside housing prices depend a lot on various factors such as the age of the property, facilities, surrounding area etc. Hence, the property bubble will burst for the places bought over priced with no stronghold value to it.
Some have suggested that given India's
population densityis closer to that of Europethan that of America the real value of Indian Real Estate should be close to European levels rather than American levels. When looked at in that way Indian real estate is still cheap. This argument assumes the rapid economic growth in India will have brought per capita income in India to European levels within the next 5 years in urban areas.
Contra argument to this is US prices should ideally move with economy/inflation rate of 2-3% while Indian prices will gallop at the rate of 10% a year and probably more as the land distribution market is inefficient.
By its very definition a bubble is a short term phenomenon while Indian real estate market has continued on a secular upward trend, apart from periodic adjustments, in the last 10 years. Bear in mind that there are almost 400 million Indians waiting to hit the middle class group and they will exert additional pressure on the system.Affordability is the most important factor when it comes to housing prices and middle class housing is much levels of affordability in most of the major cities in India. People who compare India with developed European cities, forget the huge difference in affordability in both areas. Of course there is a huge demand for housing but they can only buy what they can afford.
One of the big problem of real-estate market is that supply lags behind demand by about 5 years (Plan-Approve-Finance-Construct time).
Lack of efficient signals to market participants means that there will be periods of mismatch between suppliers and buyers hence leading to cycles of booms and busts.
As of May 1st 2008, the Indian housing market has already started declining. Prices have started to drop drastically in some major cities.
The rents are all time low. A 60
Lakhs worth property gets a rent of 10 to 15 thousand ruppes per month.
Bank of India
Economy of India
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