- Scientific wager
A scientific wager is a wager whose outcome is settled by
scientific method. They typically consist of an offer to pay a certain sum of money on the scientific proof or disproof of some currently uncertain statement. Some wagers have specific date restrictions for collection, but many are open. Wagers occasionally exert a powerful galvanizing effect on society and the scientific community.
Notable scientists who have made scientific wagers include
Stephen Hawkingand Richard Feynman. Stanford Linear Acceleratorhas an open book containing about 35 bets in particle physicsdating back to 1980; many are still unresolved.
Famous scientific wagers
* In 1684,
Christopher Wrenannounced that he would give a book worth 40 shillings to anyone who could deduce Kepler's lawsfrom the inverse-square law. [cite book|last=Newton|first=Isaac|title=The Mathematical Papers of Isaac Newton: Volume 6|editor=Whiteside, D. T. |publisher=Cambridge University Press|location=Cambridge, England|pages=p 16|isbn=0521045851] Isaac Newton's musings on this problem eventually grew into his Principia. However, Newton was too late to qualify for the book. Historian Alan Shapiro(University of Minnesota) has stated that this episode was "undoubtedly one of the most crucial wagers in scientific history".Fact|date=February 2007
* In 1870,
Alfred Russel Wallacebet John Hampden, a believer in the flat-Earth theory, that he (Wallace) could prove the flat Earth hypothesis incorrect. The sum staked was £500 (about £34,000 today adjusted for inflation) [cite web|url=http://www.measuringworth.com/ukcompare/|title=Five Ways to Compute the Relative Value of a UK Pound Amount, 1830 to Present|work=Measuring Worth|publisher=Institute for the Measurement of Worth|accessdate=2008-06-26] . A test (now known as the Bedford Level experiment) involving a stretch of the Old Bedford River, in Norfolk, was agreed on: Wallace measured the curvature of the canal's surface using two markers separated by about five kilometres and suspended at equal heights above the water's surface. Using a telescopemounted 5km from one of the markers, Wallace established that the nearer one appeared to be the higher of the two. An independent referee agreed that this showed the Earth's surface to curve away from the telescope, and so Wallace won his money. However, Hampden never accepted the result and made increasingly unpleasant threats to Wallace.
* In 1959,
Richard Feynmanbet $1000 that no-one could construct a motor no bigger than 1/64 of an inch on a side. He lost the bet when Bill McLellan, using amateur radioskills, constructed such a motor. Feynman had never formalized the bet because he couldn't define his terms sufficiently precisely, but paid up anyway; Feynman is also on record as saying that he was disappointed with the outcome because he had hoped his reward would stimulate some new fabrication technology, but McLellan's motor used only existing techniques. Physicist Philip Ball, writing in Nature Materials, discusses this episode and concludes "Do we, like Feynman, always underestimate what our current technologies can achieve?"
* In 1975, cosmologist Stephen Hawking bet fellow cosmologist
Kip Thornea subscription to "Penthouse" magazine for Thorne against four years of " Private Eye" for him that Cygnus X-1would turn out not to be a black hole. It was, so Hawking lost. It has been said that Hawking hoped to lose the bet, since so much of his own work depended upon the existence of black holes. For Hawking, then, the bet was a type of hedge.
* In 1980, biologist
Paul R. Ehrlichbet economist Julian Lincoln Simonthat the price of a portfolio of $200 of each of five mineral commodities ( copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten) would rise over the next 10 years. He lost: by 1990, the prices had fallen to $576. "See also: Wager between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich."
* In 1997 Stephen Hawking and Kip Thorne made a bet with
John Preskillon the ultimate resolution of the apparent contradiction between Hawking radiationresulting in loss of information, and a requirement of quantum mechanicsthat information cannot be destroyed. Hawking and Thorne bet that information must be lost in a black hole; Preskill bet that it must not. The formal wager is: "When an initial pure quantum stateundergoes gravitational collapseto form a black hole, the final state at the end of black hole evaporation will always be a pure quantum state". The stake is an encyclopediaof the winner's choice, from which "information can be recovered at will". Hawking conceded the bet in 2004. "See also: Thorne Hawking Preskill bet"
* The efforts of photographer
Eadweard Muybridgeto capture the motion of a galloping horse were not part of a wager, contrary to popular opinion.
Pascal's wageris not a wager in the sense used in this article, nor is it scientific.
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