Solomon curve

The Solomon curve is the graphical representation of the research conducted by David Solomon in the late 1950s and published in 1964.[1]

Contents

The original research

In 1964, Solomon researched the relationship between average speed and collision rates of automobiles and plotted the results.[2] While others have attempted to quantify the relationship between average speed and collision rates, Solomon's work was both "the earliest and best known".[3] Solomon conducted a comprehensive study of more than 10,000 accident-involved drivers and their vehicles and how other roadway, driver, and vehicle characteristics affect the probability of being involved in a crash.[4] He found that the probability of being involved in a crash per vehicle-mile as a function of on-road vehicle speeds follows a U-shaped curve with speed values around the median speed having the lowest probability of being in a crash.[5] Although typically called the Solomon curve, the U-shaped curve has also been referred to as the Crash Risk Curve.[6]

Subsequent research

In 1968, Julie Cirillo conducted a similar study of 2,000 vehicles on interstate highways that addressed speed variation’s impact on crashes that involved two or more vehicles.[7] The Cirillo data represented a U-shaped curve similar to the Solomon curve.[8] Two potential problems with the Solomon and Cirillo studies were (1) the police reports, driver’s reports, and third party estimates used were subject to error and unknown reliability, and (2) many of the crashes involving slow speed likely involved vehicles that were stopping or slowing to turn or just entering the road.[9] The Research Triangle Institute conducted a study in 1970 where data was collected on 114 crashes involving 216 vehicles on a state highway in Indiana to address these concerns by (1) combining automated, embedded speed monitoring stations with trained on-scene crash investigators, and (2) distinguishing data on vehicles slowing to negotiate a turn from vehicles moving slowly in the flow of traffic.[10] Reporting on these results in 1971, academics West and Dunn confirmed the findings of Solomon and Cirillo,[11] but found that crashes involving turning vehicles accounted for 44 percent of all crashes observed in the study and that excluding these crashes from the analysis greatly attenuated the factors that created the U-shape of the Solomon curve.[12] In 1991, Fildes, Rumbold, and Leening collected self-reported crash data from 707 motorists in Australia with less than 200 reporting they had been in an accident but, unlike Solomon and Cirillo, the researchers found no relationship between slower speeds and increased crash involvement.[13] Notwithstanding the many studies over the years, in testimony before the Ohio Senate Highways and Transportation Committee on June 10, 2003, Julie Cirillo, Former Assistant Administrator and Chief Safety Officer for the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), testified that "up to the present time there has been no evidence to alter Solomon’s original finding that variance from the mean operating speed is a major contributor to accidents."[14]

Theoretical foundation

Hauer provided a theoretical foundation for the Solomon curve in 1971 – “for example, if I drive at 45 mph, while the median of the pack is 60 mph, how many cars will pass me in an hour and hence have a chance to collide with me ” – that showed that the theoretical distribution was nearly identical to the Solomon curve.[15]

Practical implications

While Solomon’s research focused on speed deviation, and not speed per se, some commentators have cited Solomon’s research to support the conclusion that raw speed and crash risk are not directly related.[6] On the other hand, while recognizing Solomon's research reveals the importance to safety of variability around average speed, Leonard Evans concludes in Traffic Safety and the Driver that control of absolute driver speed, and not variability, should be the primary focus of traffic safety regulation.[16] Both views support the fact that the seminal research underlying the Solomon curve shows that the greater the difference between a driver’s speed and the average speed of traffic – both above and below that average speed – the greater the likelihood of involvement in a crash.[17] Consequently, many states and safety organizations advise drivers to “drive with the flow of traffic”.[14]

See also

References

  1. ^ Solomon, David (July 1964, Reprinted 1974). "Accidents on main rural highways related to speed, driver, and vehicle". Technical report, U.S. Department of Commerce/Bureau of Public Roads (precursor to Federal Highway Administration). 
  2. ^ Meyer, John Robert; José A. Gómez-Ibáñez, William B. Tye, Clifford Winston (February 1999). Essays in Transportation Economics and Policy. Brookings Institution Press. pp. 275. ISBN 978-0815731818. http://books.google.com/?id=MFhkehz-Ky0C&pg=PA257&dq=%22Solomon+curve%22. 
  3. ^ Kloeden CN, McLean AJ, Moore VM, Ponte G (November 1997). "Travelling Speed and the Risk of Crash Involvement". pp. Section 2.1. http://casr.adelaide.edu.au/speed/vol-1.html. Retrieved 3-1-2009. 
  4. ^ Johnson, Steven L.; Naveen Pawar (November 2005). "Cost-Benefit Evaluation of Large Truck- Automobile Speed Limit Differentials on Rural Interstate Highways" (MS Word). University of Arkansas, Department of Industrial Engineering: Page 24. http://ww2.mackblackwell.org/web/research/ALL_RESEARCH_PROJECTS/2000s/2048/Final%20MBTC%20Report%202048%2011-8.doc. Retrieved 2009-03-01. 
  5. ^ Chan, Kuei-Yuan; Steven J. Skerlos, Panos Y. Papalambros (2006-09-10). "A CASE STUDY IN VEHICLE EMISSIONS REGULATIONS TO ACHIEVE AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS" (PDF). Proceedings of IDETC/CIE 2006. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: ASME. pp. 8. http://ode.engin.umich.edu/publications/PapalambrosPapers/2006/231.pdf. Retrieved 2009-03-01. 
  6. ^ a b Society for Safety by Education Not Speed Enforcement. "Is speed killing us?". http://www.sense.bc.ca/research.htm. Retrieved 3-1-2009. 
  7. ^ Cirillo, J.A. (1968). Interstate System Accident Research Study II, Interim Report II, Public Roads, 35 (3). pp. 71–75. 
  8. ^ Johnson, Steven L.; Naveen Pawar (November 2005). "Cost-Benefit Evaluation of Large Truck- Automobile Speed Limit Differentials on Rural Interstate Highways" (MS Word). University of Arkansas, Department of Industrial Engineering: Page 25. http://ww2.mackblackwell.org/web/research/ALL_RESEARCH_PROJECTS/2000s/2048/Final%20MBTC%20Report%202048%2011-8.doc. Retrieved 2009-03-01. 
  9. ^ Federal Highway Administration (1998). "SYNTHESIS OF SAFETY RESEARCH RELATED TO SPEED AND SPEED LIMITS". Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center. http://www.tfhrc.gov/safety/speed/speed.htm. Retrieved 2009-03-02. 
  10. ^ Research Triangle Institute, "Speed and Accident, Volume II," Report No. FH-11-6965, National Highway Safety Bureau, June 1970.
  11. ^ West, L.B., Jr. and Dunn, J.W. (1971). "Accidents, Speed Deviation and Speed Limits." Traffic Engineering. 41 (10), 52-55
  12. ^ Fildes BN, Rumbold G and Leening A (June, 1991). "Speed Behaviour and Drivers’ Attitude to Speeding". Monash University Accident Research Centre, Victoria Australia,. http://www.monash.edu.au/muarc/reports/muarc016.html. Retrieved 3-2-2009. 
  13. ^ a b "Testimony of Julie Anna Cirillo". Land Line Magazine (OOIDA). 2003-06-10. http://www.landlinemag.com/Special_Reports/2003/June03/Cirillo_Testimony.htm. Retrieved 2009-03-02. 
  14. ^ John Robert Meyer, José A. Gómez-Ibáñez, William B. Tye, Clifford Winston (1999-02). Essays in Transportation Economics and Policy. pp. Page 276. ISBN 9780815731818. http://books.google.com/?id=MFhkehz-Ky0C&pg=PA276&lpg=PA276&dq=%22The+Solomon+Curve%22. Retrieved 3-1-2009. 
  15. ^ Evans, Leonard (1991). Traffic Safety and the Driver. New York, New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold. pp. 155–56. ISBN 0442001630. http://books.google.com/?id=OyuGJJ6rKQ0C&pg=PA155&lpg=PA155&dq=%22Traffic+Safety+and+the+Driver%22+Solomon. 
  16. ^ Transportation Research Board, Committee for Guidance on Setting and Enforcing Speed Limits (1998). Managing Speed. National Research Council (U.S.). pp. 46. ISBN 0-309-06502-X. http://books.google.com/?id=pARs53U6NAQC&pg=PA224&dq=%22drive+with+the+flow+of+traffic”+Solomon. 

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