4 Degrees and Beyond International Climate Conference
The 4 Degrees and Beyond International Climate Conference, subtitled Implications of a Global Climate Change of 4+ Degrees for People, Ecosystems and the Earth-system, was held 28-30 September 2009 at Oxford, United Kingdom. The three-day conference had about 140 science, government, NGO and private sector delegates, and included 35 oral presentations and 18 poster presentations. The conference website includes a page for downloading abstracts, presentations, audio recordings, and the programme. Links to a number of news stories are also provided. Sponsors were the University of Oxford, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, and the Met Office Hadley Center.
Video podcasts of all oral presentations are posted on a University of Oxford website; however, to find videos by presenter names the above cited program must first be consulted to find the presentation title.
In January 2011 eleven papers and three introductory articles resulting from the conference were published as a special issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications. Many of the papers are free downloads. The contents of the special issue are listed later in this article.
In July 2011 a follow-up conference, Four Degrees Or More? Australia in a Hot World, was held at the University of Melbourne, Australia. It is described in the last section of this article.
Rationale for the Conference
- "Despite 17 years of negotiations since the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise. Since 2000 the rates of annual emissions growth have increased at rates at the upper end of the IPCC scenarios, presenting the global community with a stark challenge: either instigate an immediate and radical reversal in existing emission trends or accept global temperature rises well beyond 4°."
- "The immediacy and scale of the reductions necessary to avoid anything below 4°C, and indeed the human and ecosystem implications of living with 4°C, are beyond anything we have been prepared to countenance. Understanding the implications of 4°C and higher temperatures is essential if global society is to make informed choices about the balance between "extreme" rates of mitigation and "extreme" impacts and adaptation costs."
- "The aim of this conference is therefore to: (i) assess the consequences of a change in global temperature above 4°C for a range of systems and sectors, and (ii) explore the options that are open for avoiding climate changes of this magnitude. The results of the conference will form an important background to the COP 15 United Nations Climate Change Conference, in Copenhagen, December 2009, and the inevitable negotiations that will follow COP 15."
- "1. Invited keynote talks that:"
- a. provide state of the art assessments of the impacts of 4+°C climate change for a range of human, ecological and earth systems."
- b. reframe the mitigation challenge in terms of steps necessary to avoid the significant risk of a 4-5 degree warming under different emissions reduction scenarios and the options open to enable a clear avoidance of such a risk."
- 2. Open call for oral and poster papers in the above themes, with a focus on regional examples that complement keynote topics."
Because the conference records are scattered among three websites, links to them are collated here along with WikiPedia listings for the authors. For a few presenters the materials are incomplete or absent. Bulleted items are presentations. References to post-conference papers in the Royal Society's special issue are indented, with names of the co-authors who were conference presenters in bold.
SESSION 1, CONFERENCE OPENING
- Preface (to the special issue): Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:4-5; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0304.
- Prof John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact research. Terra quasi-incognita: beyond the 2 degree C line. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (284 MB) |
- Dr Richard Betts, Met Office Hadley Center. Regional climate changes at 4+ degrees. | Slides | Audio | " MP4 video, (284 MB) |
- Richard A. Betts, Matthew Collins, Deborah L. Hemming, Chris D. Jones, Jason A. Lowe, and Michael G. Sanderson. When could global warming reach 4°C? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:67-84; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0292.
- M. G. Sanderson, D. L. Hemming, and R. A. Betts. Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (=4°C) global warming. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:85-98; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0283
- Prof Nigel Arnell, Univ. of Reading. 4+ degrees C: impacts across the global scale. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (165 MB) |
SESSION 2, AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND WATER SECURITY
- Dr Philip Thornton, Int'l Livestock Research Inst., Nairobi, Inst. of Atmos. & Env. Sciences, Univ. of Edinburgh. 4+ Degrees C: what might this mean for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa? | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (174 MB) |
- Philip K. Thornton, Peter G. Jones, Polly J. Ericksen, and Andrew J. Challinor. Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:117-136; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0246.
- Dr Polly Ericksen, GECAFS/ECI, University of Oxford. Adapting African food systems to a 4+°C world. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video, 137 MB) |
- Dr Reimund Rotter, MTT Agrifood Research Finland. What would happen to barley production in Finland if global temperature increases above 4+°C? | Slides |Audio | MP4 video (136 MB) |
- Mr Rasack Nayamuth, Mauritius Sugar Industry Research Institute. 4+ oC: A Drastic reduction in the renewable energy potential of sugarcane. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (151 MB) |
SESSION 3, AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND WATER SECURITY
- Dr Andrew Challinor, University of Leeds. Crop yields at 4+ oC: implications for adaptation | Slides |Audio | MP4 video (169 MB) |
- Dr Fai Fung, Tyndall Centre, University of Oxford. Risked posed to global water availability by a 4+°C climate change. | Slides | MP4 video (145 MB) |
- Fai Fung, Ana Lopez, and Mark New. Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:99-116; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0293.
- Dr Matthew Charlton, Walker Institute. Limits to adaptation: implications of global temperature changes beyond 4+°C for water supply in southern England | Slides |
- Prof Anders Levermann, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research. Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions | Slides |Audio | MP4 video (119 MB) |
SESSION 4, ECOSYSTEMS AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
- Prof Yadvinder Malhi, Env. Change Inst., School of Geography and the Env., University of Oxford. Tropical forests in a 4+°C world. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (227 MB) |
- Przemyslaw Zelazowski, Yadvinder Malhi, Chris Huntingford, Stephen Sitch, and Joshua B. Fisher. Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:137-160; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0238. (Subscription). | Abstract |Data Supplement |
- Prof Wolfgang Cramer, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research. Changing climate, land use and fire in Amazonia under high warming scenarios | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (172 MB) |
- Prof Andy Moffat, Forest_Research. Living with uncertainty – UK forestry beyond 4+°C | " Slides | Audio |
- Jose Marengo, Earth System Science Centre, Nat'l Inst. for Space Research, Brazil. Projected impacts of 4+°C warming in the semiarid lands of northeast Brazil. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (115 MB) |
SESSION 5: VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
- Dr Pier_Vellinga, Wageningen Univ.. Sea level rise and impacts in a 4+°C World. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (193 MB) |
- Prof Stefan_Rahmstorf, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research. Sea-level rise in a 4°C world | Slides | [haudio/5-2rahmstorf.mp3 Audio] | MP4 video (151 MB)|
- Diogo de Gusmao, Met Office Hadley Center. Sea level rise projections for the warmest IPCC SRES simulations. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (141 MB) |
- Prof Robert Nicholls and Sally Brown, Univ. of Southampton. Impacts of sea-level rise at 4+°C. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (158 MB) |
- Robert J. Nicholls, Natasha Marinova, Jason A. Lowe, Sally Brown, Pier Vellinga, Diogo de Gusmão, Jochen Hinkel, and Richard S. J. Tol. [http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/161.full.pdf+html Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a
beyond 4°C world in the twenty-first century.] Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:161-181; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0291 (Subscription) | Abstract |
- Dr Jochen Hinkel, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research. The impacts of sea-level rise on coastal nations with and without mitigation. An application of the DIVA and IMAGE models. | Slides | Audio MP4 video (137 MB) |
SESSION 6: VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
- Prof David Karoly, Univ. of Melbourne. Wildfire in a 4+°C World. | Slides | audio/6-1karoly.mp3 Audio | MP4 video (148 MB) |
- Dr Simon Hales, World Health Org. Estimating human population health impacts in a 4+°C world. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (108.5 MB) |
- Dr Francois Gemenne, Sciences Po Paris. Climate-Induced Population Displacements in a 4+°C World. |Slides | Audio | MP4 video (167 MB) |
- François Gemenne. Climate-induced population displacements in a 4°C+ world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:182-195; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0287. (Subscription) | Abstract |
- Dr Pamela McElwee, Arizona State Univ. . Social Vulnerability And Adaptation Possibilities For Vietnam In A 4+&Deg;C World. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (156 MB) |
SESSION 7: PANEL DISCUSSION
- 4°C of climate change: alarmist or realist? | " Audio | Moderator: Prof Diana Liverman. Panelists: Mark_Lynas (author), Dr Kevin_Anderson_(scientist) (Dir. Tyndall Centre), Dr Chris West (Dir. UK Climate Impact Progamme), Ian Noble (Climate Advisor The World Bank), and James Painter (Reuters).
SESSION 8, ADAPTATION
- Prof Leonard Smith, London School of Economics. One, Two, Three, More: Challenges to Describing a Warmer World. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (181 MB) |
- Dr Mark Stafford Smith, CSIRO. How adaptation decision-making is affected by the potential for 4+°C. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (141 MB) |
- Dr Michael Morecroft, Natural England. Nature conservation in a 4+°C world - a luxury or a necessity? | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (128 MB) |
- Ms Lisa Horrocks, AEA . The implications of 4+°C warming for adaptation strategies in the UK: time to change? | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (182 MB) |
SESSION 9: AVOIDING LARGE CLIMATE CHANGES
- Dr Jason Lowe, The Met Office. 4+°C: the emissions reduction challenge. | (no media available) |
- Dr Myles_Allen, Department of Physics, University of Oxford. What will it take to avoid 2, 3 and 4+°C? the importance of cumulative emissions. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (160 MB) |
- Niel H. A. Bowerman, David J. Frame, Chris Huntingford, Jason A. Lowe, and Myles R. Allen. Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:45-66; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0288. (Subscription) | Abstract |
- Dr Rob Swart, Wageningen Univ. & Research Centre. Beyond 4°C: should we reconsider our options? | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (160 MB) |
- Ms Holly Preston, Dalton Research Inst., Manchester Metro. Univ. The role of international transportation sectors in climate stabilization. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (132 MB) |
SESSION 10: AVOIDING LARGE CLIMATE CHANGES
- Prof Kevin_Anderson_(scientist), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Global emission pathways: balancing Annex 1 mitigation with non-Annex 1 development. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (216 MB) |
- Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows. Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:20-44; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0290.
- Prof Bertrand Guillaume, Univ. of Tech. of Troyes. Avoiding a 4+°C world: A challenge for democracy. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (100 MB) |
- Dr Hari Dulal, The World Bank. Greenhouse Gas Contributions and Mitigation Potential of Agriculture: Creating Incentives within the Existing Carbon Trading Agreements. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (100 MB) |
Additional papers from the Royal Society special issue
- David Garner. Editorial. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:3; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0289.
- Rachel Warren. The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:217-241; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0271.
AGRICULTURE, WATER AND FOOD SECURITY
- Prof. Raul Ponce-Hernandez, Trent Univ. A model-based approach to predicting the effects of global warming four degrees and beyond on ecosystem primary productivity, land degradatoin and food security at national scale: Case Study Ethiopia.
- Dr. Helena Kahiluoto, Agrifood Research Finland. Implications of 4+°C global warming on potential of carbon trading for mitigation and food security - analytical framework and an Ethiopian case.
- Dr. Yasuaki Hijioka, National Institute for Environmental Studies. Implications of 4° in Japan. -- Quantitative analysis of sectoral impacts of climate change in Japan using an integrated assessment model, AIM/Impact.
- Mr. Jens Heinke, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research. Implications for Global Water Availability of Extreme Global Warming Scenarios.
- Mr. Robert McSweeney, Atkins Water & Environment, and Univ. of E. Anglia. [http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/ppt/poster-mcsweeny.pdf The implications of a 4° rise in global mean temperature for
water resources in south east England.]
ECOSYSTEMS AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
- Dr. Elena Parfenova, Forest Institute. Conifer trees of the South Siberia Mountains in a changing climate of XXI Century.
- Dr. Stephan A. Pietsch, BOKU University of Naturalö Resources and Applied Life Sciences. 4+°C: Ecosystem Resilience and Predictability.
- Mr. Przemyslaw Zelazowski, University of Oxford. The influence of variation in climate simulations on the simulated response of tropical forests to a global 4 degrees warming.
VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
- Dr. Matthew Eames, University of Univ. of Exeter. Predicting temperatures within buildings and the heat stress on occupants under substantial climate change.
- Mr. Abdeltif El Ouahrani, University Abdelmalek Essaadi. Climate Change and Mediterranean region: vulnerability and opportunities.
- Dr. Gernot Brodnig, The World Bank. A View From the Top: Vulnerability and Adaptation in Mountain Systems.
- Dr. Sally Brown, Univ. of Southampton. Sea level response and impacts to a 1°C to 7°C temperature rise by 2100.
AVOIDING LARGE CLIMATE CHANGES
- Mr. Markus Hageman, Ecofys GmbH. The role of sectoral characteristics in designing mechanism for participation of developing countries.
- Dr. Robin Hickman, Oxford University. Backcasting for low carbon transport.
- Dr. Jasper Knight, Univ. of Exeter. Landscape responses to future climate change in glaciated mountains.
- Dr. Katja Frieler, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research.
2011 Follow up event: "Four Degrees Or More? Australia in a Hot World"
- "... explores the unintended consequences of current domestic and international climate policies. It invites us to imagine the social, economic and ecological implications of catastrophic global warming for Australia and its region. The international community has agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Yet the Copenhagen pledges to cut emissions will, if honoured collectively, result in average warming of 4 degrees or more. So what might Australia look like then?"
As with the earlier conference, multimedia and pdf files of the presentations and keynote addresses are posted on the conference website.
The conference organiser was Dr Peter Christoff. Prof. John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact research (PIK) was again a keynote speaker, along with Prof. Ross Garnaut. The event was disrupted by anti-environmental protesters.
Presenters: Dr Karl Braganza, Prof. Jon Barnett, Assoc. Prof. Peter Christoff, Prof. Robyn Eckersley, Prof. Ross Garnaut, Prof. David Griggs, Andrew Hewett, Prof. Ove Hoegh Guldberg, Dr Mark Howden, Prof. Lesley Hughes, Prof. David Karoly, Prof. Jan Mcdonald, Assoc. Prof. Phil Mcmanus, Prof. Tony Mcmichael, Prof. Malte Meinshausen, Prof. Jean Palutikof, Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Anna Skarbek, Prof. Will Steffen, And Dr Penny Whetton.
- ^ a b c d 4 Degrees and Beyond International Climate Conference, Implications of a Global Climate Change of 4+ Degrees for People, Ecosystems and the Earth-system, University of Oxford, 28-29 Sept. 2009.
- ^ Official conference website [http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/programme.php Programme, abstracts, presentations, and audio recordings.]
- ^ Linked list of news stories.
- ^ a b Presentation videos
- ^ a b New, M.; et al. (2011)'Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications 369:1934.
- ^ U.S. News & World Report. 2010, 3 Dec., by Janet Raloff. World Could Heat Up 4 Degrees C in 50 Years: Immediate action needed to hold warming to half that, scientists calculate
- ^ Conference homepage: Four Degrees or More? Australia in a Hot World
- ^ Hudson M (2011). Facing the heat. Nature Clim. Change. 1:6, 282-284. Sept. 2011.
- ^ About the Conference webpage.
- ^ Presentations from: Four Degrees or More? Australia in a Hot World
- ^ Program for Four Degrees or More? Australia in a Hot World
- ^ List of speakers, including their qualifications. Four Degrees or More? Australia in a Hot World conference website.
- News coverage of the conference
- Mobile Oxford (MOX) Conference videos (nearly all presentations)
Wikimedia Foundation. 2010.
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